Bond market to Fed: Stop cutting rates

China trade surplus soars to $1T, provoking trade war tensions ahead of Trump's return

Bond vigilantes doing the work that BoJ should have done on 12/19

Chinese stocks just had their worst start to the year since 2016

The market is now pricing in a single rate cut in all of 2025: a 25 bps move down to 4.00-4.25% by year end.