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We're racking up downside inflation surprises. Core PCE inflation in the US slowed more than expected yesterday (blue) and today core HICP inflation in the Euro zone fell unexpectedly. This is the start of a big pivot in markets with focus shifting from inflation to recession...

00:01 - 04/07/22

Fitch Ratings has increased near-term global fertiliser price assumptions on supply constraints and increased feedstock prices.

Another relationship that continues to hold up well. The Russell 2000 vs. the SPX/XAU

Nomura Now Forecasts Global Recession As Its Base Case

Argentina sold enough securities to roll over its debt coming due in the month of June in a local debt auction, easing concerns of an immediate financing shortfall