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Inflation dooms 60/40 portfolios' comeback as stocks, and bonds move in lockstep

00:01 - 09/03/23

If the S&P 500 fails to hit a new all-time high in 2023 it would be the first year since 2012 without at least 1 all-time high.

You can now earn a 5% yield in 3-Month Treasury Bills. First time since 2007. A year ago the yield was 0.38%.

Given discussion in Powell’s hearing about 1% increase in unemployment rate, here are rolling 12-month changes (orange) in unemployment rate back to 1940s, with recessions

Economists’ expectations for future inflation is irrelevant. They always expect inflation to go back to 2% anyway