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Recession probability model from  Economics (based on 10y2y yield spread) has risen to an all-time high

00:01 - 10/03/23

If recent history is any guide, this yield surge in T-Bills is a precursor to disaster for the S&P 500

The 6-Month Treasury Bill yield has moved up to 5.34%, its highest level since January 2001. A year ago this yield was 0.72% and two years ago 0.06%.

GS: Which global macro risk are investors most worried about for 2023? Over 40% of attendees polled at our Global Macro Conference said ‘US-China tensions’, followed by 26% saying ‘inflation’

S&P Global Ratings Credit Research & Insights expects the U.S. trailing-12-month speculative-grade corporate default rate to reach 4% by December 2023. To reach this baseline forecast, 73 speculative-grade companies would need to default