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Cost of insuring against US default (CDS Price) has jumped due to debt ceiling stand-off and bank bailouts BUT market-implied probability of default w/3.5% is way lower today than in former episodes – particularly the summer of 2011, or autumn of 2013

00:01 - 15/03/23

This trend is very predictable. Each time the money supply has contracted in last 150 years, we've had a banking crisis. M2 Money is down -2% YoY. First time in 100 years. Take note

The Riskiest US junk bond spreads vault over 1,000bps. Borrowing costs have jumped in the wake of SVB’s failure. Premiums that wide are typically associated with distress. (BBG)

7.1% of US homes are worth at least $1 million, down from a peak of 8.6% in Jun 2022 but still much higher than the 4.2% in Jan 2020.

Hong Kong’s economy's is likely to expand faster following China's reopening. Meanwhile, rival financial hub Singapore's outlook has been lowered