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Tech is a really crowded trade

00:01 - 22/05/23

 

 

 

US Housing Starts were were down 22% over the last year, the 12th consecutive YoY decline (longest down streak since 2009). Tends to be a leading indicator for the economy, recessionary signals continue to build

 

 

 

ECB balance sheet has risen again last week as more bonds were bought than matured. Total assets rose by €11.6bn, most since Jan. ECB Balance sheet now at €7,728.6bn, equal to 59% of Eurozone's GDP vs Fed's 32%, SNB's 113% and BoJ's 130%

 

 

 

 

The gap between China's goods surplus -- as reported in the customs data -- and China's good surplus in the balance of payments is now an incredible $300 billion, or over 1.5% of GDP ...

 

 

 

The Near-Term Forward Yield Spread-based model suggests that the probability of recession is 99.3% within 12 months

 

 

 

 

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